Why is smoking declining in New Zealand while Australia’s approach is fuelling a dangerous black market? In this excerpt from GFNTV’s interview at GFN 2026 in Warsaw, Australian GP Dr Joe Kosterich contrasts New Zealand’s approach to tobacco harm reduction with Australia’s restrictive policies on safer nicotine products.
Transcription:
GFN Extra — Joe Kosterich on Australia vs New Zealand smoking rates
Global Forum on Nicotine 2026
Joe Kosterich 0:00:00
New Zealand smoking rates are falling and Australia's smoking rates are not falling. And it then perhaps goes, if you want to go one level deeper than that, in Australia, in the indigenous population, smoking rates are roughly three times that of the general population.
In New Zealand, the smoking rate in the Maori population I think is also somewhere between two to three times the rate of the general population. I'm not going to square to that exact number. But there's also been a focus on wanting to reduce smoking in that population.
So you go on to the New Zealand Ministry of Health website and there's a video It's a mock-up video of a doctor talking to a Maori patient about switching from smoking to vaping. This is New Zealand, Australia. They're not the same. They're better at us than rugby. We're better than them at cricket. They're not identical cultures, but they are similar.
We've been to New Zealand a number of times over the years and look, the New Zealanders might not like me saying this, but sort of a little bit like the seventh state.
No, it's not exactly the same, but there are a lot of, I mean, there are a lot of similarities, but this just stands out as one country is doing what works and is persevering with it and getting the results and the community is benefiting and other countries doing the exact opposite. And obviously we've spoken about the consequences.
Brent Stafford 0:01:30
So in New Zealand, do they have a rash of fire bombings, arson, extortion and murder wrapped around safer nicotine products?
Joe Kosterich 0:01:42
No, obviously they don't. Again, because it's a legal regulated market as against an unregulated, illicit market where the criminal gangs fight for turf. And I think in Melbourne alone, they've been over 150. firebombings and it also has reached the stage where there are businesses that just happen to be next door to one of these shops and they can't get insurance.
You're running a florist and you just happen to be next door to a convenience store and all of a sudden you can't get insurance. And then that affects those people's business. So the ripples of damage go even further.
Brent Stafford 0:02:19
Yeah, so I mean, let's not let me paint that picture, you paint it for us, for our audience that doesn't yet really understand what's going on in Australia, help them.
Joe Kosterich 0:02:30
Well, I mean, essentially you've had, the best analogy I could give is think 1920s America, that you have a product that people want that has been banned. Now, banning it doesn't stop people wanting it. So demand doesn't go away. And nature, as I say, abhors a vacuum.
So therefore, there's enough money to be made by criminals who realise that their likelihood of getting caught, particularly the senior ones, is very, very low. Look, some low level people might get pinged and every so often you'll get a minister doing a photo opportunity. Oh, look, we've seized 24 cigarettes. You know, aren't we great? 24, a few more than that.
But you get typically, oh, this is this massive haul and it's sort of like, you know, three hours supply, something like that. So this is, so the criminal gangs are going to fight for territory. They don't respect the law, but also consumers suffer because there is no manufacturing standard.
So with, you know, like in New Zealand, you've got vapes that have to go through the quality control that any legalised product has to go through. There are some manufacturing standards. If it says X milligrams per mil, it's got X milligrams per mil. If it lists the ingredients, those are the ingredients. Black market doesn't do that.
And even the same with cigarettes, which are now roughly a quarter the price on the black market than the legal market. Look, I suspect it's substantially tobacco, but who knows what else might be in there? So it's actually damaging to the consumer because they don't know what they're getting. And then this is hailed by the powers that be.
Oh, look, these products are really dangerous. Well, if you allow the black market to dominate and there are no manufacturing standards and no quality or safety controls, yeah, that's what you get.